Attitudinal Consequences of Random Experience: Evidence from Beijing Car Lottery
We conducted a representative survey of participants in Beijing car lottery. After controlling for the time of participation, whether winning a lottery or not is random. Exploiting this exogeneity, we find that winning the lottery makes people feel happier in general. Lottery winners believe they had a better luck in the car lottery, but the sense of more luck extends to other daily lottery events and even to a toss of a coin, showing clear evidence for misattribution and over-confidence. Winners are also more likely to perceive the car lottery as being fair, and the sense of just also extends to other lottery extents, like welfare housing lottery. However, winners are not more likely to vote for Beijing car lottery against Shanghai auction. Finally, as lottery winners are more likely to own a car, they are more likely to prefer free parking in a shopping mall even if this would raise prices. However, although winners drive more on road, they don't vote for more investment on roads than on subways. We also find that college education mediates the attitudinal bias.
讲座时间：2017 年 4 月 24 日（星期一）下午 13:30 至 15:00
讲座地点：求是楼 347 会议室
陆方文，于2011年获得美国加州伯克利大学经济学博士学位，现为中国人民大学经济学院副教授，研究领域为发展经济学,实验经济学,和应用计量经济学。其研究成果发表在Journal of Labor Economics，Journal of Public Economics， Journal of Development Economics，Management Science，Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization等国际顶级学术期刊。